WHERE OBAMA STANDS – AT 10:27 A.M. ET:  We prefer the Rasmussen poll to others because Scott surveys likely voters, the kind who actually come out on election day.  His latest report shows the president with weak but survivable numbers:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows that 21% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty percent (40%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -19.

That is close to the worst showing Mr. Obama has had in the Rasmussen survey.  The index essentially measures the passion in people's views.

Overall, 46% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's performance. Fifty-three percent (53%) at least somewhat disapprove.

That is fairly typical of the president's approval during the previous year.  The approval number in the mid-40s confirms what we see in other polls.

The president doesn't reach the magic 50% number in this report.  On the other hand, his case is far from hopeless.  He has a base that remains remarkably loyal, in part because of ethnic solidarity.  He is vulnerable in 2012, but a surge in popularity due to some political maneuvering or a blunder by Republicans can give him enough support to win reelection.  The ball is in the GOP's court.

July 10, 2011